I am however starting to think that the plan for the Gold Dinar and support from other Islamic nations is a planned offensive against the use of the dollar as a settlement currency for oil. It is perceived, and correctly so, that the Islamic world is controlled via the use of the US dollar as the main settlement currency. When I say "controlled" I mean whatever happens economically in the USA is exported there via the dollar. Dollars exchanged for the Gold Dinar currency as a measure for gold settlements quarterly or gold convertible to pay for certain oil imports would end all the debate of whether or not gold has a place in the monetary system.
What we are hearing now is that the Gold Dinar will be used as a "measure" settled quarterly in gold on an Islamic intra-nation basis, but that could change quickly. A review of the trade balances of Malaysia and its intra-Islamic trade partners indicates that if the Gold Dinar is employed as now suggested, it would tie up approximately 200 tonnes of gold production equal to 10% of new mine supply. If Malaysia went all the way and went to convertibility with a 15% gold cover, they would utilize more than 300 tonnes of new production. Either way, this is the Wildest of Wild Cards for Gold.
The advent of the Gold Dinar, as now envisioned, would remove any discussion of whether or not we are embarking on a very long-term bull market in gold. I have already told you that I believe this is not just a gold recovery, not just a gold bull phase, not just a gold bull market, but the advent of the return of gold to a monetary application in which gold will be in a bullish posture on balance for the rest of my life. I expect to live until at least 2030. Gold Producer Hedger Take Note.
Few Islamic nations have affinity with Hussein, but fewer like the idea of the US attacking Iraq, an Islamic country. For what it is worth, I am told there is a significant possibility that when the US attacks Iraq, the united Islamic salvo back will be at the US dollar via the Gold Dinar -- not as a measure, but rather as a convertible currency. Confidence that the Saudis will come to the rescue of the dollar stands on thin ice. The Saudi Royal Family is under significant pressure from the fundamentalist influence there. They are less likely than most observers think to rescue the dollar this time. The Gold Dinar is the major wild card in the entire history of gold. It must be monitored very closely.
Translated from the "Al-Fath Al-'Ali Al-Maliki" pp. 164-165
"This Fatwa considers paper-money to be fulus, because it only represents money and does not have value as merchandise. It follows that since Zakat cannot be paid in fulus, which has no value as merchandise, it cannot be paid in paper-money, which value as weight of paper is null. On this basis, it becomes clear the urgent need to restore the use of the Dinar and the Dirham as payment of Zakat. If the millions of Muslims who now make their payment of Zakat in paper money would do it in newly minted Dinars and Dirham's, they will put in circulation millions of gold and silver coins into the mainstream of daily commercial activities of our communities. That single act will became the most important political act of the century, opening the path towards the establishment our own halal free currency breaking away from the usurious financial system.
The return to the payment of zakat in gold and silver is an essential part of the reestablishment of Islam."
Those are serious words and should not be taken lightly. You see, the establishment of a gold-based currency is rebellion against the IMF as it is distinctly forbidden under IMF rules. The advent of the Gold Dinar would be the "Nadir" of the IMF & World Bank.
These are uncharted times. I believe that the Islamic Nations are quite serious about this and that in some form, it will happen on schedule or sooner. Now we can add a "Nuclear Wild Card," an independent gold-based Islamic currency to the 5 elements for a long-term bull market in gold.
The Seriousness of the Gold Dinar
A presentation made in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
The Honorable Dr. Mahathir Bin Mohammed
Minister of Finance for Malaysia
"The Gold Dinar in Multilateral Trade"
Presented to the Community
I have chosen to delete the first 17 points as they refer to subjects that might cause the western precious metals researcher to prejudice the rest of this extremely important document. There is no coverage in the West of this watershed event in monetary history which is clearly, really and powerfully in the making. Those that wish the first 17 points need only ask for them and I will provide them. They speak to the perspective of an Arab in today's Islamic world. This opening 17 points requires a perspective of high pan-determinish to deal with objectively. That is a quality that the West has always lacked and after September 11th probably will not acquire soon in matters dealing with the Islamic world. I have made the decision to make to present t to you in this manner as it must be read with an open mind.
There is an Islamic currency coming. That is a fact. There is a high chance that this is it. The Dinar is a tactic nuclear monetary weapon of self-protection in the Islamic perspective. It is a statement by them of Islamic Self Consciousness and Islamic Self Esteem. It is an Islamic rally point for all 1.2 billion of that persuasion. It is coming soon and it is real. It may not be viewed objectively by the West, in the environment of a weak dollar now existing. That weak dollar situation looks to me as if it will get significantly worse before it gets significantly better. This is not low amplitude noise. This is a NOISE that may scream soon the unthinkable word, Remonetization. Here are the words of its architect. Pay close attention to the final point in the words of this Minister of finances own words. They need to be understood completely in order to understand what is coming. Oleh/By : DATO SERI DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD Tempat/Venue: IKIM HALL KUALA LUMPUR Tarikh/Date: 23/10/2002 Tajuk/Title : THE GOLD DINAR IN MULTI-LATERAL TRADE SEMINAR
20. If the Muslims are going to protect themselves they must have sufficient wealth. Allah has endowed Muslim countries with inexhaustible wealth. These need to be administered for the good of the ummah.
21. But wealth can also be acquired through commercial activities, through the production and distribution of goods and services and through trade.
22. Today trade between Muslim countries is small. It is not suggested that we reduce our trade with the non- Muslims. But we should endeavour to increase the trade between Muslim countries.
23. We can trade through the exchange of goods, through barter. But today we use money. Since we don't have a currency which is strong enough and stable enough in exchange rate terms, we have to use the American dollar. But the dollar is also not stable. Today the dollar has depreciated against many other currencies. This means that despite the increase in the price of oil for example, we are actually earning less due to the devaluation of the dollar. It is the same with the other currencies. It is the same with our own currencies. They all fluctuate in value. And they are all subject to speculation and manipulation as happened in Malaysia and other East Asian countries, in Russia and in Latin America.
24. The reason for this is that paper currency has no intrinsic value. You can print any figure you like on currency notes but in exchange rate terms the figure means nothing. The Malaysian Ringgit is 3.8 to one U.S. Dollar. The Turkish Lira is 1.5 million to one U.S. Dollar. The Indonesian Rupiah is 9000 to one U.S. Dollar. The purchasing power within the country is different from the purchasing power outside the country. Sometimes countries have as many as four exchange rates -- one official, one for domestic economy, one for export and one for import.
25. Clearly this situation in terms of international finance is chaotic and anarchic. But since the system benefits the powerful countries they are unwilling to correct it.
26. If we want to avoid being short-changed we must have a currency that has intrinsic value. Gold does fluctuate in price but the fluctuation is minimal. It is not possible to devalue gold by one hundred percent or one thousand percent. Nor is it possible to revalue gold by the same percentage. The fluctuation in the value of gold can only be by a few percentages, up or down.
27. When the Allied nations met in Bretton Woods to determine the principle for the rate of exchange of international currencies in order to facilitate trade, they decided to use gold as a standard. The value of the U.S. Dollar was fixed at one dollar for 1/35 ounce of gold or 35 U.S. Dollars per ounce. All other currencies were valued in gold through the rates of exchange with the U.S. Dollar.
28. This worked quite well until some countries wanted to devalue their currencies in order to become competitive in the international market. Then other countries also decided to devalue in order to remain competitive. Finally the U.S. Dollar was devalued against the Gold.
29. At this stage the gold standard could not be sustained. The market claimed that it could determine the exchange rate through the demand and supply of currencies freely traded in the market. But profiteers moved in and they manipulated the value of the currencies so that there was chaos in terms of exchange rates of currencies. Business became very difficult. Indeed many good businesses went bankrupt when the domestic currency gets devalued. The hedge Funds which claim to insure the value of the currencies made huge sums of money speculating and manipulating the values of the currencies.
30. This anarchy in the international financial regime will remain because it benefits the rich and the powerful. If we want to protect ourselves we must evolve our own payment system, our own trading currency.
31. The Gold dinar can provide the currency for trade between nations. If we value all trade items against gold, then we will have no problem with the exchange rate. We know that in the last resort we can melt the gold and sell it in the market. You obviously cannot do that with paper currency, worst still with figures on a computer. They have no intrinsic market value as gold has.
32. But gold is bulky. We cannot be carrying gold all over the world in order to pay for goods we want to import. But we need not do that.
33. It is not intended to use the gold dinar as currency for everyday transactions in the domestic market. For this we can use national currencies. If there is inflation then the currency can buy less gold and other goods. And vice versa. So there is no necessity to carry bags of gold coins for transaction within the countries.
34. But even for international trade the transport of gold bullions or gold coins would be very minimal. Through bilateral payments arrangements the imports can be balanced by the exports and the differences settled in gold dinars. The Central Bank can provide a guarantee for the gold required for the payments of the balance. In the following weeks or months the deficits may be reduced or a surplus achieved. In that case the payments of the balance can be made through accounting arrangements between the Central Banks. It is only occasionally that a necessity might arise for the actual gold dinar to be used to pay for the purchase of imports.
35. We cannot really verify the amount of money a country has. A country's own currency cannot be regarded as its reserve. But gold dinars or gold bullion or gold ingots can serve as a country's reserve. Still in the end we have to trust each other. If we are good Muslims then the cases of fraud by Central Banks would be minimal.
36. Assuming that Malaysia exports to a Dinar Area country a hundred million Dinars worth of motor vehicles and then imports 110 million dinars worth of oil, then the payment required by Malaysia would be just 10 million dinars. The ten million dinars is credited to Malaysia's trading partner. If in the following month the trading partner buys 110 million dinars worth of Malaysian cars and Malaysia buys 100 million dinars worth of oil, then no payment need to be made by either party. The 10 million dinars that has to be paid by Malaysia's trading partner for the motor vehicle can be offset by the credit of 10 million dinars from the previous month's transactions.
37. Today with computers we can close account and pay more frequently. Through this method it is not necessary to purchase or earn hard currency.
38. Of course there may be some countries which are so poor that they cannot have gold dinars. We can buy some raw materials to be paid in gold dinars. They can be helped to build up the reserves of gold dinars.
39. There will be problems. But if we begin with just a pair of countries we would be able to minimise problems and demonstrate whether it works or not. We will be able to identify the weaknesses and the faults and correct them.
40. Gold is a precious metal. There has never been a time when there was no demand for gold. It is also not so plentiful that its price will fall the way paper currency or even other precious metals can fall. Yet it is not so limited in quantity that anyone or any trader can corner it and manipulate the price.
41. In different countries the price of gold will differ in terms of the currency of that country. That is a function of the currency of the country. The value of one gold dinar is one gold dinar no matter what the exchange rate of a currency is against the gold dinar. If the value of goods or services is expressed in gold dinar, the value remains the same no matter which country is involved in the trade.
42. Thus an exporter can declare the agreed price in dinar to the importer in another country and to the Central Bank in his country. Depending on the agreement reached the Central Bank will pay the exporter the current local currency equivalent to the gold dinar price. At the importer's end, he would pay to his country's Central Bank the local currency equivalent of the agreed price in dinar. At the end of the week or month the Central Banks will total up the value in dinar of the exports and imports between the two trading countries. If they are not balanced then the country with a surplus will have a credit account against the country with a deficit. The difference can be paid in dinar or in goods or the country with the surplus can hold the dinar for future purchase from the country in deficit.
43. In multi-lateral trade, the process may be a little more complicated but it is entirely, manageable. A clearing house can be set up for a group of trading countries and the deficit and surpluses balanced. The process is not unlike the clearing of the cheques of numerous banks at a central clearing house.
44. Provided there are goods or services to be supplied by all participating countries, the amount of gold dinars that needs to be kept as reserve backing and for payment in the last resort is very small. Ideally there would be no need to transport and pay in dinars. The imports and exports in most instances would cancel themselves. The profits come from disposing of the goods or services domestically when the local currency would be used.
45. There will be problems of course. But there are problems now. Countries with no "hard currency" i.e. U.S. dollars cannot pay for their imports anyway. In addition the U.S. currency is not as stable as gold. Not only can it appreciate or depreciate widely but a country's currency can be made to depreciate so much against the U.S. Dollar that its imports cannot be paid for, priced as they are in U.S. Dollar. The gold dinar cannot depreciate much against the U.S. Dollar.
46. Gold price can also be manipulated but not as easily as U.S. Dollar or other currency. No one can sell gold at below market price because he just will not be able to deliver when called upon to do so. Short-selling will be very difficult if not impossible.
47. However local currency prices of gold can still fluctuate if left to the market. It is up to the country concerned whether to control exchange rates or not. But speculation and manipulation will not be as easy as when local currency is valued against the U.S. Dollar.
48. It must again be stressed that the Gold Dinar is exclusively for international trade. It is not to be used as local currency. In a sense it is like the U.S. Dollar now. Some countries of course use the U.S. Dollar locally for paying hotel bills by foreigners. But the dinar is heavy and cumbersome to carry. So it cannot be used as freely as the U.S. Dollar locally. This again lends credibility to the dinar and the local currency, which has to be used for local payment.
49. We should not be too ambitious as to launch the Gold Dinar for multi-lateral trade at one go. We should begin by pairing off the countries willing to use the Gold Dinar. A pair of good trading countries with a fairly well balanced trade should initiate the use of the Gold Dinar. Problems that arise can be resolved and the system improved. After the bugs have been got rid off then the trade using the dinar can be expanded gradually to involve more countries.
50. Traders in particular will be happy because their prices in Gold Dinar would not be affected by changes in the exchange rates of the importing countries or the exporting countries. In dinar, the prices will always remain the same.
51. It is not the intention to make the dinar a common currency for all countries. It is not really the Gold Standard with a fixed value against local currency. If countries print more local currency there would still be inflation within the country. But trade would be stable and enhanced. Speculators and manipulators will not be able to undermine international trade.
52. Of course the Gold Dinar can be a trading currency, for all countries, not necessarily Muslim countries. But Muslim countries are in the best position to demonstrate the viability of the system. They are in a position to manage their economies rationally and in the process show the world that they are capable of growing with stability and in peace. And this will do more towards countering oppressions by their enemies than the futile violent retaliations.
Sinclair conclusion:Dear Friends of the Gold Community new and old, this is a very young gold market with a long way to go. It is only in the crawling stage and has done magnificently so far. Soon it will stand up, become strong and be recognized. This time Atlas will not Shrug but rather Gold as an economic Atlas will be used to bolster and restore confidence in the US dollar through a revitalized Gold cover Clause. When the next bull market in equities begins it will be gold that will stand as the foundation to that event and not more paper foolishness from any central bank or international derivative traders. The really millennium begins when gold revitalizes world economies not through convertibility but rather through the gold's real role in the monetary system. Gold is a control item that disciplines the creation of monetary aggregates. That is what the Gold cover clause does and that is why Nixon sterilized it. Mark my words. It is coming and it brings good times, not the four horsemen now looked for as the specters coming over the hill. The ascendancy of gold will be hard fought but will be finally embraced as now popular central bank tools of interest rate manipulation and monetary aggregate expansion are destined by their own definition to fall flat on their political faces. It is amazing that out of Islam comes what will save the Western World's economic system. I am certain that Divinity, whatever He, She or It is or is not, has a unique SENSE OF HUMOR and loves Infinite Variety.
4 of the 5 elements for a long-term bull market in gold are in. The 5th element may well be here as well. Now the Wild Card has raised it's head. Where is the greatest risk in gold now?
In my opinion, the short side of gold has infinite risk. The long side of gold has significant fundamental support.
© 2002 James E. Sinclair
This article appears in the Nov. 15, 2002 issue of Executive Intelligence Review (www.larouchepub.com).
Gold Dinar: An Economic and Strategic